offseason

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When Meeting Expectations is Exemplary

July 16, 2009 in Free Agency, Hockey, Signings, Trades | 3 comments

It’s been a paradoxical off-season for the Thrashers. Does anybody else seem confused that Don Waddell has done exactly what he said he would? After seasons and seasons of disappointment, it’s somewhat surprising to go down the least of off-season needs and check them all off. Even the most pessimistic commentator must admit that we’ve picked up all the items on the shopping list.

A Top-6 Forward

While I disagree that we had a major hole in the top-6, conventional wisdom said the Thrashers needed to pick up a top-6 forward. I would say that Kovalchuk – White – Little and Kozlov – Peverley – Armstrong are perfectly acceptable lines, but adding talent is always beneficial (at least when you ignore financial constraints.) Waddell said he’d pick up a top-6 guy… and he did. Nik Antropov may not be ideal, but did anybody think Martin Havlat was coming here? Mike Cammalleri might have fit in, but do you want him for $6 million over 5 years? I sure don’t.

Let’s face facts: Nik Antropov is not a game-changer. He’ll score goals, he’s got a big body… but he’s no superstar…

…and that is perfect for this team. He scored 28 goals in 81 games this past season between Toronto and the Rangers. He’s picked up his scoring year-over-year since the lockout. If you ignore his play with Toronto this year – and let’s not forget how terrible they were – he’s a solid plus-player: +53 over all his NHL years, +31 from 2005 – 2008.

Does Antropov take us from the basement to Stanley Cup contention? Of course not! He’s certainly a step forward. The best way to look at this aquisition is to see which player he’s displacing from the end of last season. Take your pick: Colin Stuart or Eric Perrin.

Is Antropov a step up from Colin Stuart or Eric Perrin? Do I even need to answer that one?

A Top-4 Defenseman

Next up on the wishlist: a top-4 guy to play with Enstrom, Bogosian, and Hainsey. A lot of folks thought we’d part with a goalie to get either the top-6 forward or top-4 defenseman, but in the end, all we had to give up was Garnet Exelby and Colin Stuart.

God knows we all love Exelby… and I thought his play – minus the broken-leg days – was pretty good this year. He seemed to play pretty well with Ron Hainsey. Hainsey had the passing skills that Exelby lacked, so when paired together, Ron helped to cover up his weaknesses. In the end, though, Exelby is not nearly as mobile or pass-proficient to play in the John Anderson system.

Pavel Kubina is. While he doesn’t have the grit of Exelby, he’s got the offensive flair. Last year, Kubina had 14 goals and 26 assists for 40 points. This is an important stat: these both would have been franchise records for the Thrashers. So would his 11 goals / 40 points in 2007-2008 (in just 72 games). He scored 11 or more goals in 3 other seasons prior to that.

The knock against him is the combined -101 over 11 seasons in the NHL, but -87 of that came in his first 4 years with a very, very bad Tampa Bay team. He’s not a shutdown type, and his stats reflect that. The question is whether the offensive-capability he brings is enough to offset any weaknesses in the defensive zone. That remains to be seen.

If you’ve watched the Thrashers enough, though, you’ve probably noticed an infuriatingly common trend: after 40-45 seconds of play in their own defensive zone, the Thrashers will recover the puck only to skate to the red line, dump, and change lines. Repeat. Believe it or not, this isn’t a systems problem, it’s a talent problem. If you’ve got a guy who can’t move the puck quickly and accurately, he’ll carry and dump. (cough cough, Exelby, cough.) If you’ve got a guy who can pass the puck to a teammate – even better, a guy who can carry it into the offensive zone for a shot… think Bogosian – you can break this cycle. Establishing a forecheck can be tricky business, and the more talent you have on the blueline, the easier that’ll be.

I think the John Anderson system will focus on this: no longer will we pair an “offensive defenseman” with a “stay-at-home defenseman.” Every defenseman needs to be able to make clean first passes. Every defenseman needs to be able to carry the puck into the offensive zone. It makes sense: if you don’t have a strong backchecking team (which we don’t) you will get fewer chances to advance zones. You must make the most of each attempt.

This is a statistic that I do not have but wish I did: efficiency of zone-advance. For a player in the defensive-zone who gains possession of the puck, what percentage of the time does he cleanly 1) pass the puck to a teammate in the neutral zone or 2) skate the puck into the offensive zone? Zach Bogosian excels at this. Garnet Exelby does not.

This brings us back to Pavel Kubina: if he can be more efficient at moving the puck forward through the zones, he’ll likely be successful as a Thrasher. From what I’ve seen, he’ll be capable.

It’s tough to lose Colin Stuart. He’s a fantastic third line player and was very effective on the penalty kill. That said, I’m more excited about seeing guys like Kane, Klingberg, and perhaps Machacek have a shot at that spot in the next 2 or 3 years (or for Kane, perhaps sooner.) While Colin scored a few goals during the year, I think a guy with a more natural scoring touch will be even better.

Lock Down the Guys Who Need to Stay

Lehtonen? Check. Armstrong? Check. Reasoner? Check. Salmela? Check. Looks good to me.

We even got these guys for good money! Lehtonen got another deal at $3 million – very reasonable. Colby Armstrong is in that tough range between a third line guy and a second line guy and his contract of $2.4 million reflects that. Reasoner was a bargain at just over a million and Salmela is near the league minimum.

Look at this list and ask yourself… did the Thrashers get better this offseason? I think you’ll agree that they did.

Leaving:

  • Colin Stuart
  • Eric Perrin
  • Garnet Exelby

Joining:

  • Nik Antropov
  • Pavel Kubina
  • Evander Kane?

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Town Hall Meeting

March 7, 2009 in Hockey | 2 comments

Oh, Donny’s a charmer.

If you have never had the pleasure of chatting with Don Waddell in person, you’re missing out. He may never have been a big-time hockey player, but Waddell knows the sport. He’s intelligent, articulate, and somewhat crafty. Don’t believe me?

We all knew the “Ownership Question” was going to come up. (The question ranges from an intelligence level slightly below “ownership wtf lolz” to – if the right person asks it first – a well-rehearsed public repudiation of the Atlanta Spirit.) This time, the Ownership Question was raised by an intelligent person, but Waddell had an Ace in the Hole.

Kovalchuk.

Yes, upon asking the Ownership Question, Donny motioned to the side and Kovy sprinted in. He talked for a couple minutes about our exciting young team and how he hopes we’d stick with the Thrashers.

 

Kovalchuk at Town Hall Meeting

Kovalchuk at Town Hall Meeting

Shucks, so much for sticking it to Waddell.

The rest of the questions were about as predictable as the answers. There was one question that was actually unique and – this is a frequent problem – something Don can talk about. (Sidebar: he can’t talk about players he’d like to sign. It’s against league rules. Stop asking.) A STH thanked Don for the recycling bins that have shown up at Philips and asked if they’re planning on doing anything else to reduce emissions, etc. Don called up the head of the Arena who said they are attempting to get LEED-certified.

Wow! For envionmentalists out there, this is a pretty big deal. LEED-certification is pretty tough. You normally need to build large buildings with LEED-certification in mind – going back and improving efficiency after the building is in operation is incredibly difficult. I commend the folks in charge of this.

Furthermore, this country will soon be moving to a cap-and-trade system for carbon emissions, so I can only imagine that taking action now will help significantly in the long run. I’ll see if I can contact anybody within the organization and ask a few questions about greening Philips.

Other items of interest:

  • Many, many teams inquired about Colby Armstrong. Don said that every single one of the 16 playoff teams asked. Some of the offers were very, very tempting, but Army is a very important “heart and soul” kind of guy. Don hopes he’ll be a bigger part of this team in the future. As a testament to that, Army played on the 2nd line that evening and will likely remain there for awhile.
  • Don said that, to be a playoff team, we’ll have to replace Niclas Havelid. A guy suggested, “With Niclas Havelid?” Everybody laughed and Don said, “I didn’t say that! You guys are going to get me in trouble.” If Niclas doesn’t go to Sweden, I think he’s most likely to resign here. Do you want him back?
  • Notice that you haven’t heard a peep out of Ownership for awhile? That’s intentional. They have apparently been keeping hush-hush during litigation. Expect to hear more from up-top in the near future.
  • A new logo is coming next year! Don didn’t specify whether it was a re-working of our main logo or simply a 10th anniversary patch, but he did say we’d “have more stuff to buy.” Thanks.
  • Don is looking at bringing in some bigger, tougher players for the top-6. He’s looking for guys who will be able to cycle and establish a forecheck.
  • Don is now the 2nd GM who I’ve heard talk about the salary cap for the 2010-2011 season. He gave an example in which he suggested it might be as low as $46 million, about $10 million below this year. He said that guys with those big contracts are going to become much easier to pick up in the offseason. Teams wanted to hang onto them for the rest of the year – that’s why most didn’t move at the deadline – but come offseason, expect to see a lot of big names moving around as teams try to get salary down ahead of time.

I would expect significant turnover between this and next year. From the sound of it, a lot of our players will be heading out the door. I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least a couple RFAs go without qualifying offers. Based on comments I’ve heard, here’s my re-sign and let walk lists (not what I would do, but what I think Don will do):

Re-sign: Armstrong, Reasoner, Slater, Thorburn, Valabik

Let Walk: Perrin, Oystrick

Lehtonen is an interesting case. My guess is either he or Pavalec will be moved this summer.

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