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Could the Sedins find a new home in Atlanta?

May 1, 2009 in Free Agency | No comments

Oh, those Swedish twins.

Henrik and Daniel Sedin, currently of the Vancouver Canucks, will be free agents this summer. They currently bring home $3.575 MM / year (each) and they want to stick together. The odds are that you already know all about the Sedins, so I won’t bore you with the details. What I’m interested in looking at is:

  1. Could we afford them?
  2. Do we want them?
  3. What would a Thrashers + Sedins team look like, anyway?

The Thrashers currently have 11 players signed next year with a $29MM cap hit. These include most of our crucial players – Kovalchuk, Little, White, Kozlov, Peverley, Bogosian, Enstrom, and Hainsey. Assuming that we look to resign Armstrong (at $2MM) Reasoner (at $1-$1.5MM) and Lehtonen (at $4-5MM), we’ll still have significant cap space to fill out our team. By my estimates, we’d be at $37MM with those players. Another 4 or 5 guys will sign near the league minimum, so let’s assume our pre-Sedin cap hit is $40MM. Even if the cap falls, we’d have at least $10-$12 million to work with. Because of the faltering economy, most general managers will not be willing to give large long-term contracts during this off-season as easily as in the past, so there’s a possibility you could sign the Sedins in that range ($5-6MM each).

Are we willing to spend it? Comments from ownership lean toward “we’re willing to spend to put together a winning team,” but who knows what that means? I would think signing the Sedins would go a long way toward convincing Kovalchuk to stay, but it’s certainly no guarantee. And what of our defense? Scoring was never a problem for our team, it was always the Goals Against column that killed us.

The Sedins come with a bonus: they score at a point per game rate (both had 82 points this season) and can play defensively as well. Daniel led Canuck left wings with a +24 and Henrik led centers with a +22. (The runner up at center? Kessler at +8…)

So let’s assume that the defensive play of the Sedins (or perhaps the strong forecheck) could provide the extra “defense” we need, allowing us to stick with our end-of-season defensive lineup. How would our team look with the Sedins?

Kovalchuk – White – Little

Sedin – Sedin – Armstrong

Kozlov – Reasoner – Peverley

Boulton – Slater – Crabb

 

Enstrom – Bogosian

Hainsey – Salmela

Valabik – Exelby

I placed Colby Armstrong with the Sedins because of his blazing speed. (ha ha!) Colby’s a good fit with the Sedins because of his strength in tight situations in the corners and along the boards. He’s got the size to go to the net and has a reasonable ability to score.

But what’s this about Kozlov on the 3rd line? And Peverley too? Am I crazy?

Let’s face it, folks: Kozlov is getting older. By playing him less minutes, he can play more quality minutes. And he’ll certainly play on the Power Play as well. 12-14 minutes might be the sweet spot where Kozlov can still be effective without exhausting himself.

Rich Peverley would simply be the victim of having too many centers. He’d get extra ice time by playing on the PK and occasionally on the Power Play. If Todd White’s very strong 2008-2009 season doesn’t continue in 2009-2010, we’ll have a clear contender to fill the spot. Of course, that might require a different structure across all three lines…

Kovalchuk – Peverley – Armstrong

Sedin – Sedin – Little

Kozlov – White – Reasoner

Rich and Colby showed some chemistry late in the year (they are also roommates on the road) and Army’s looked good with Kovy at times as well. Bryan Little also plays a game amenable to the Sedins as well. Whitey and Marty would be Penalty Kill staples for us in this configuration (and thanks to the reduced even-strength ice-time, they’d be fresher.)

I’m not sold on the Sedins as a move by itself – I think we’d want to move at least one center to make room for them. There’s been talk of moving a goalie this off-season to pick up a good player. I think if we were to package White, a goalie, and perhaps another player and get a top-6 center back, we might be able to cobble together a pretty good team.  The big question is… are we willing to spend the money?

We’ll find out in July!

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Town Hall Meeting

March 7, 2009 in Hockey | 2 comments

Oh, Donny’s a charmer.

If you have never had the pleasure of chatting with Don Waddell in person, you’re missing out. He may never have been a big-time hockey player, but Waddell knows the sport. He’s intelligent, articulate, and somewhat crafty. Don’t believe me?

We all knew the “Ownership Question” was going to come up. (The question ranges from an intelligence level slightly below “ownership wtf lolz” to – if the right person asks it first – a well-rehearsed public repudiation of the Atlanta Spirit.) This time, the Ownership Question was raised by an intelligent person, but Waddell had an Ace in the Hole.

Kovalchuk.

Yes, upon asking the Ownership Question, Donny motioned to the side and Kovy sprinted in. He talked for a couple minutes about our exciting young team and how he hopes we’d stick with the Thrashers.

 

Kovalchuk at Town Hall Meeting

Kovalchuk at Town Hall Meeting

Shucks, so much for sticking it to Waddell.

The rest of the questions were about as predictable as the answers. There was one question that was actually unique and – this is a frequent problem – something Don can talk about. (Sidebar: he can’t talk about players he’d like to sign. It’s against league rules. Stop asking.) A STH thanked Don for the recycling bins that have shown up at Philips and asked if they’re planning on doing anything else to reduce emissions, etc. Don called up the head of the Arena who said they are attempting to get LEED-certified.

Wow! For envionmentalists out there, this is a pretty big deal. LEED-certification is pretty tough. You normally need to build large buildings with LEED-certification in mind – going back and improving efficiency after the building is in operation is incredibly difficult. I commend the folks in charge of this.

Furthermore, this country will soon be moving to a cap-and-trade system for carbon emissions, so I can only imagine that taking action now will help significantly in the long run. I’ll see if I can contact anybody within the organization and ask a few questions about greening Philips.

Other items of interest:

  • Many, many teams inquired about Colby Armstrong. Don said that every single one of the 16 playoff teams asked. Some of the offers were very, very tempting, but Army is a very important “heart and soul” kind of guy. Don hopes he’ll be a bigger part of this team in the future. As a testament to that, Army played on the 2nd line that evening and will likely remain there for awhile.
  • Don said that, to be a playoff team, we’ll have to replace Niclas Havelid. A guy suggested, “With Niclas Havelid?” Everybody laughed and Don said, “I didn’t say that! You guys are going to get me in trouble.” If Niclas doesn’t go to Sweden, I think he’s most likely to resign here. Do you want him back?
  • Notice that you haven’t heard a peep out of Ownership for awhile? That’s intentional. They have apparently been keeping hush-hush during litigation. Expect to hear more from up-top in the near future.
  • A new logo is coming next year! Don didn’t specify whether it was a re-working of our main logo or simply a 10th anniversary patch, but he did say we’d “have more stuff to buy.” Thanks.
  • Don is looking at bringing in some bigger, tougher players for the top-6. He’s looking for guys who will be able to cycle and establish a forecheck.
  • Don is now the 2nd GM who I’ve heard talk about the salary cap for the 2010-2011 season. He gave an example in which he suggested it might be as low as $46 million, about $10 million below this year. He said that guys with those big contracts are going to become much easier to pick up in the offseason. Teams wanted to hang onto them for the rest of the year – that’s why most didn’t move at the deadline – but come offseason, expect to see a lot of big names moving around as teams try to get salary down ahead of time.

I would expect significant turnover between this and next year. From the sound of it, a lot of our players will be heading out the door. I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least a couple RFAs go without qualifying offers. Based on comments I’ve heard, here’s my re-sign and let walk lists (not what I would do, but what I think Don will do):

Re-sign: Armstrong, Reasoner, Slater, Thorburn, Valabik

Let Walk: Perrin, Oystrick

Lehtonen is an interesting case. My guess is either he or Pavalec will be moved this summer.

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