Could the Sedins find a new home in Atlanta?

Oh, those Swedish twins.

Henrik and Daniel Sedin, currently of the Vancouver Canucks, will be free agents this summer. They currently bring home $3.575 MM / year (each) and they want to stick together. The odds are that you already know all about the Sedins, so I won’t bore you with the details. What I’m interested in looking at is:

1. Could we afford them?
2. Do we want them?
3. What would a Thrashers + Sedins team look like, anyway?

The Thrashers currently have 11 players signed next year with a $29MM cap hit. These include most of our crucial players – Kovalchuk, Little, White, Kozlov, Peverley, Bogosian, Enstrom, and Hainsey. Assuming that we look to resign Armstrong (at $2MM) Reasoner (at $1-$1.5MM) and Lehtonen (at $4-5MM), we’ll still have significant cap space to fill out our team. By my estimates, we’d be at $37MM with those players. Another 4 or 5 guys will sign near the league minimum, so let’s assume our pre-Sedin cap hit is $40MM. Even if the cap falls, we’d have at least $10-$12 million to work with. Because of the faltering economy, most general managers will not be willing to give large long-term contracts during this off-season as easily as in the past, so there’s a possibility you could sign the Sedins in that range ($5-6MM each).

Are we willing to spend it? Comments from ownership lean toward “we’re willing to spend to put together a winning team,” but who knows what that means? I would think signing the Sedins would go a long way toward convincing Kovalchuk to stay, but it’s certainly no guarantee. And what of our defense? Scoring was never a problem for our team, it was always the Goals Against column that killed us.

The Sedins come with a bonus: they score at a point per game rate (both had 82 points this season) and can play defensively as well. Daniel led Canuck left wings with a +24 and Henrik led centers with a +22. (The runner up at center? Kessler at +8…)

So let’s assume that the defensive play of the Sedins (or perhaps the strong forecheck) could provide the extra “defense” we need, allowing us to stick with our end-of-season defensive lineup. How would our team look with the Sedins?

Kovalchuk – White – Little

Sedin – Sedin – Armstrong

Kozlov – Reasoner – Peverley

Boulton – Slater – Crabb

Enstrom – Bogosian

Hainsey – Salmela

Valabik – Exelby

I placed Colby Armstrong with the Sedins because of his blazing speed. (ha ha!) Colby’s a good fit with the Sedins because of his strength in tight situations in the corners and along the boards. He’s got the size to go to the net and has a reasonable ability to score.

But what’s this about Kozlov on the 3rd line? And Peverley too? Am I crazy?

Let’s face it, folks: Kozlov is getting older. By playing him less minutes, he can play more quality minutes. And he’ll certainly play on the Power Play as well. 12-14 minutes might be the sweet spot where Kozlov can still be effective without exhausting himself.

Rich Peverley would simply be the victim of having too many centers. He’d get extra ice time by playing on the PK and occasionally on the Power Play. If Todd White’s very strong 2008-2009 season doesn’t continue in 2009-2010, we’ll have a clear contender to fill the spot. Of course, that might require a different structure across all three lines…

Kovalchuk – Peverley – Armstrong

Sedin – Sedin – Little

Kozlov – White – Reasoner

Rich and Colby showed some chemistry late in the year (they are also roommates on the road) and Army’s looked good with Kovy at times as well. Bryan Little also plays a game amenable to the Sedins as well. Whitey and Marty would be Penalty Kill staples for us in this configuration (and thanks to the reduced even-strength ice-time, they’d be fresher.)

I’m not sold on the Sedins as a move by itself – I think we’d want to move at least one center to make room for them. There’s been talk of moving a goalie this off-season to pick up a good player. I think if we were to package White, a goalie, and perhaps another player and get a top-6 center back, we might be able to cobble together a pretty good team.  The big question is… are we willing to spend the money?

We’ll find out in July!