Fire Waddell? No thanks.

There’s a pretty big talking point that’s been going on in the Thrashers blogosphere for the past couple years and I feel it’s time for me to address it. I recognize that my blog is young and has few posts… in fact, I haven’t even properly launched it yet. (Look for a redesign with a reasonable logo sometime this summer…) Still, it seems that so many of our blogs attack Don Waddell (professionally, not personally) and so few argue the other side.

In fact, pro-Waddell sentiment seems to be largely based on the “he can help us re-sign Kovalchuk” case. If you are unfamiliar, it works like this: Kovy respects Waddell.

Yeah, that’s basically it.

My argument for keeping Waddell is perhaps more simplistic, but that doesn’t make it any less true. I believe that Don Waddell is the best man for the job. While he has done some things in the past that can – and perhaps should – be held against him, what’s the use of firing him if you aren’t going to replace him with someone who is better?

Let’s turn the clock back to our 0-6 start to the 2007-2008 season. We were swept out of the playoffs in the spring and started very, very poorly. The decision was made to send Bob Hartley packing… but we didn’t have anybody in mind for coach. Waddell took over and gave a mixed performance: a good start was crushed with a late season collapse (mostly due to the Hossa situation). We didn’t hire a new coach for several reasons: Waddell wanted to give Anderson a shot, but John wanted to finish up the season with the Wolves, and we were also still paying Hartley’s salary. The Thrashers are on a budget, and paying two coaches is an expensive proposition.

Let’s talk budget for a minute as well… you realize that a hockey club costs more to run than player salaries, right? The GM, scouts, coaches, trainers: these folks all get paid. When you have an organization that is budget-minded, these folks take pay cuts as well. (Remember, we *have* to spend to the cap floor for player salaries.) If you need to cut money from payroll, guess where the cuts are made? Scouts, coaches, trainers… Want to know why our drafting hasn’t been as good as clubs like Detroit and New Jersey? I bet we don’t spend as much money on scouting as they do. (If you have actual figures, I’d love to see them.)

Okay, so if we’re going to fire Waddell, we need to make sure we can get a GM who will perform better. The problem is that we aren’t going to spend the money necessary! I can imagine somebody from the Spirit making calls. “Yes, hi, we’d like to talk to you about becoming the General Manager for the Thrashers. I know Atlanta is not a hockey city and you’ll be forced to keep salary near the floor every year, but it’s an exciting opportunity. Sure, it’ll be a huge pay-cut from other cities you could work in, but at least you’ll get little to no recognition in the media!”

I’m sure guys are chomping at the bit to come to Atlanta.

The thing that makes the “Fire Waddell” case even weaker is that he’s started to perform much better as GM in recent years. Let’s look at draft picks who will turn into NHLers (with 50% probability or greater) since the lockout:

• 2008: Bogosian (1st)
• 2007: Machacek (3rd) and Postma (7th)
• 2006: Little (1st) Holzapfel (2nd) Kulda (7th)
• 2005: Pavalec (2nd) LaVallee (4th)

There are several other players who have a good shot, but it’s too early to tell: Leveille, Paquette, Saponari, Lucenius, Albert, Kangas, Enlund

So our drafting has looked up, how about our waiver-wire fishing? Waddell actually tried to trade for Rich Peverley earlier in the season before he was available on waivers. An obvious pickup? Nashville didn’t think so, they wanted to keep him. If it was such an obvious move, why was the blogosphere not going nuts when Rich was placed on waivers?

And that brings us to trades. We’ve brought in and moved out some players, so it helps to see the full context here:

Marian Hossa and Pascal Dupuis for Colby Armstrong, Eric O’Dell, Daultan Leveille, and Angelo Esposito

This trade also includes the Christensen/O’Dell trade and the drafting of Daultan Leveille. Look at the above line and tell me we didn’t win this one. Hossa was going to walk after the season anyway. We picked up a 20-goal scoring character guy and three prospects. Of those three prospects, two were drafted in the 1st round and the other in the 2nd. We made out like gangbusters on this one.

Ken Klee, Brad Larsen, Chad Painchaud, and a conditional pick (3rd, 4th, or 5th round) for a 2nd round pick in 2009 and a 3rd round pick in 2010

We’ve zeroed out Schneider in this deal. It looks like our conditional pick will be a 3rd rounder (as Montreal will likely be ousted by Boston in the quarterfinals) so you can think of this as Klee, Larsen, and Painchaud for a 2nd round pick. Is anybody really unhappy with that? Oh, and it got us above the cap floor as well.

Those are two examples. You can see my analysis of Havelid for Salmela in a previous post. But here’s the one everybody loves to talk about…

Braydon Coburn for Alexei Zhitnik

Am I the only one who remembers how bad Coburn looked when he played here? He looked absolutely lost on the ice, it was terrible. He was worse for us than Valabik has been this year (and I’ve suggested we hang on to Boris a bit longer so we don’t potentially make the same mistake as with Braydon). Zhitnik came in and performed hugely for us. In 18 games to end the season, Alexei had 2 goals and 12 assists. That’s 0.78 points/game as a defenseman! Even Ron Hainsey’s record-setting year (points in a season) for our franchise was only at a pace of 0.48 points/game. While Hainsey was a -16 for us this year, Zhitnik’s 18 game run came with a +4. 

So what happened the next year? Who knows. Maybe it was conditioning, maybe it was differences in style of play. The guy fell apart… is that Don’s fault? Sure, a bit. But forgetting how well the trade looked during those 18 games leads most folks to a very different conclusion.

How about free agent signings? Hainsey’s been good, but Marty Reasoner is the real standout to me. There’s a guy who works hard every game and can put the puck in the net on occasion as well.

While I recognize that Don has been General Manager for a long time, it’s also important to note that we got better every year until we sent away our young talent to make the playoffs. It seems like we’ve learned our lesson: we’re building the way a team is supposed to build, through the draft. We’ve got a good group of coaches in place to work with our young guys (including former Sabres-organization whiz Randy Cunneyworth) and the team is starting to believe in itself. The 17-10-1 finish should be enough indication that this team is heading in the right direction.

I’m not the type to say “don’t change horses mid-stream,” it is often necessary. We’ve got a good thing building up in Atlanta, though. Now is not the time to rock the boat. Waddell has one last chance: he needs to get Kovalchuk re-signed. If he fails to do that, I’ll be in the angry mob with the rest of you, calling for his head.