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When Meeting Expectations is Exemplary

July 16, 2009 in Free Agency, Hockey, Signings, Trades | 3 comments

It’s been a paradoxical off-season for the Thrashers. Does anybody else seem confused that Don Waddell has done exactly what he said he would? After seasons and seasons of disappointment, it’s somewhat surprising to go down the least of off-season needs and check them all off. Even the most pessimistic commentator must admit that we’ve picked up all the items on the shopping list.

A Top-6 Forward

While I disagree that we had a major hole in the top-6, conventional wisdom said the Thrashers needed to pick up a top-6 forward. I would say that Kovalchuk – White – Little and Kozlov – Peverley – Armstrong are perfectly acceptable lines, but adding talent is always beneficial (at least when you ignore financial constraints.) Waddell said he’d pick up a top-6 guy… and he did. Nik Antropov may not be ideal, but did anybody think Martin Havlat was coming here? Mike Cammalleri might have fit in, but do you want him for $6 million over 5 years? I sure don’t.

Let’s face facts: Nik Antropov is not a game-changer. He’ll score goals, he’s got a big body… but he’s no superstar…

…and that is perfect for this team. He scored 28 goals in 81 games this past season between Toronto and the Rangers. He’s picked up his scoring year-over-year since the lockout. If you ignore his play with Toronto this year – and let’s not forget how terrible they were – he’s a solid plus-player: +53 over all his NHL years, +31 from 2005 – 2008.

Does Antropov take us from the basement to Stanley Cup contention? Of course not! He’s certainly a step forward. The best way to look at this aquisition is to see which player he’s displacing from the end of last season. Take your pick: Colin Stuart or Eric Perrin.

Is Antropov a step up from Colin Stuart or Eric Perrin? Do I even need to answer that one?

A Top-4 Defenseman

Next up on the wishlist: a top-4 guy to play with Enstrom, Bogosian, and Hainsey. A lot of folks thought we’d part with a goalie to get either the top-6 forward or top-4 defenseman, but in the end, all we had to give up was Garnet Exelby and Colin Stuart.

God knows we all love Exelby… and I thought his play – minus the broken-leg days – was pretty good this year. He seemed to play pretty well with Ron Hainsey. Hainsey had the passing skills that Exelby lacked, so when paired together, Ron helped to cover up his weaknesses. In the end, though, Exelby is not nearly as mobile or pass-proficient to play in the John Anderson system.

Pavel Kubina is. While he doesn’t have the grit of Exelby, he’s got the offensive flair. Last year, Kubina had 14 goals and 26 assists for 40 points. This is an important stat: these both would have been franchise records for the Thrashers. So would his 11 goals / 40 points in 2007-2008 (in just 72 games). He scored 11 or more goals in 3 other seasons prior to that.

The knock against him is the combined -101 over 11 seasons in the NHL, but -87 of that came in his first 4 years with a very, very bad Tampa Bay team. He’s not a shutdown type, and his stats reflect that. The question is whether the offensive-capability he brings is enough to offset any weaknesses in the defensive zone. That remains to be seen.

If you’ve watched the Thrashers enough, though, you’ve probably noticed an infuriatingly common trend: after 40-45 seconds of play in their own defensive zone, the Thrashers will recover the puck only to skate to the red line, dump, and change lines. Repeat. Believe it or not, this isn’t a systems problem, it’s a talent problem. If you’ve got a guy who can’t move the puck quickly and accurately, he’ll carry and dump. (cough cough, Exelby, cough.) If you’ve got a guy who can pass the puck to a teammate – even better, a guy who can carry it into the offensive zone for a shot… think Bogosian – you can break this cycle. Establishing a forecheck can be tricky business, and the more talent you have on the blueline, the easier that’ll be.

I think the John Anderson system will focus on this: no longer will we pair an “offensive defenseman” with a “stay-at-home defenseman.” Every defenseman needs to be able to make clean first passes. Every defenseman needs to be able to carry the puck into the offensive zone. It makes sense: if you don’t have a strong backchecking team (which we don’t) you will get fewer chances to advance zones. You must make the most of each attempt.

This is a statistic that I do not have but wish I did: efficiency of zone-advance. For a player in the defensive-zone who gains possession of the puck, what percentage of the time does he cleanly 1) pass the puck to a teammate in the neutral zone or 2) skate the puck into the offensive zone? Zach Bogosian excels at this. Garnet Exelby does not.

This brings us back to Pavel Kubina: if he can be more efficient at moving the puck forward through the zones, he’ll likely be successful as a Thrasher. From what I’ve seen, he’ll be capable.

It’s tough to lose Colin Stuart. He’s a fantastic third line player and was very effective on the penalty kill. That said, I’m more excited about seeing guys like Kane, Klingberg, and perhaps Machacek have a shot at that spot in the next 2 or 3 years (or for Kane, perhaps sooner.) While Colin scored a few goals during the year, I think a guy with a more natural scoring touch will be even better.

Lock Down the Guys Who Need to Stay

Lehtonen? Check. Armstrong? Check. Reasoner? Check. Salmela? Check. Looks good to me.

We even got these guys for good money! Lehtonen got another deal at $3 million – very reasonable. Colby Armstrong is in that tough range between a third line guy and a second line guy and his contract of $2.4 million reflects that. Reasoner was a bargain at just over a million and Salmela is near the league minimum.

Look at this list and ask yourself… did the Thrashers get better this offseason? I think you’ll agree that they did.

Leaving:

  • Colin Stuart
  • Eric Perrin
  • Garnet Exelby

Joining:

  • Nik Antropov
  • Pavel Kubina
  • Evander Kane?

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NHL Trade Deadline, aka Nap Time

March 4, 2009 in Hockey, Trades | No comments

Well, it wasn’t the most interesting trade deadline in recent memory… especially for the Thrashers.

The good news is that things picked up *after* the 3:00pm deadline. The bad news is that barely anything interesting happened before then. It looks like Calgary may have made the biggest splash by acquiring Olli Jokinen. Jay Bouwmeester is staying in Florida.

Let’s look at things from a Thrashers perspective.

There was only one move today, Erik Christensen for prospect Eric O’Dell. It’s no secret that Christensen, nickname Crusher, has underperformed in his time as a Thrasher. He has 5G 14A in 47GP this season. While not spectacular, I am one of the few who has retained hope in Erik. Here’s why:

Crusher has the tools to be a good hockey player. He’s got good hands, decent skating abilities, and the ability to win faceoffs. He’s not physical, but he’s athletic enough to play in the NHL. His problems are two fold:

  1. He has some mental issues. It seems like he hasn’t yet found a way to slow down the NHL game. “Slowing the game” is a phrase that used in hockey to mean the same thing that “in the zone” means in other sports. Let’s face it: there’s a lot going on during a hockey game. It’s necessary to be able to see plays develop and position yourself appropriately considerably before it actually happens. Erik can’t win a spot through muscle, so he’s got to win a spot through smarts. Now, when Erik is in full control of the game’s speed – the shootout – he excels. For him, it’s a matter of being that comfortable during regular play.
  2. Because of these mental issues, he hasn’t been able to remain in the top-6. For a young player who is not particularly physical, a checking/energy line assignment is often a ticket to Fail Town. Whereas Jimmy Slater (in large part with the help of Bobby Holik) has been able to push up his physical play in order to carve a role for himself, Erik hasn’t. He will typically avoid physical play and doesn’t seem as willing to “grease it up” like bottom-6 forwards are supposed to.

I think Christensen’s failures on the Thrashers are similar to Peverley’s failures in Nashville. We haven’t allowed him the right spot in the lineup for a long enough period of time to succeed. He’s played 200 NHL games over 4 seasons, but again, much of that time has been on the Penguins’ fourth line and our third line. Will he ever be a 30-goal scorer? Probably not. I think with some patience, luck, and solid work ethic, though, Crusher can be a 20-goal scorer in this league. Then again, I could be totally wrong.

In return for Christensen, we’ve received Eric O’Dell, a prospect from the Ducks. There’s not a lot of information out there on O’Dell, but here’s the important stuff:

  • 6′0″, 174lbs
  • Drafted 2nd round, 39th overall by Anaheim in 2008
  • Born June 21, 1990 in Ottawa
  • He’s a top scorer on his OHL team, the Sudbury Wolves, with 30G 29A in 59GP this season, good enough to lead the Wolves in goals and T-4th in assists

Scouting reports claim he’s a solid player with a good shot, but question his skating.

Since he was drafted before this season, he has at least one more season of junior eligibility. This means that he can only play for 1) the Thrashers or 2) the Sudbury Wolves until his junior team is eliminated from playoff contention. At that point, he can join the Chicago Wolves as an amateur try-out (ATO). The Sudbury Wolves are currently holding the 7th place spot in the OHL’s Eastern Conference, good enough for playoffs. (The top 8, of 10, teams in each conference make the playoffs). The regular season ends for Sudbury in 11 days and each round of playoffs runs about 2 weeks, so there is a chance we’ll see O’Dell in Chicago this year.

That is, of course, unless there is some other obscure provision of the CBA that prevents it. Have you ever tried to read that thing? What a mess…

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Thrashers move Havelid and Stoesz for Salmela

March 2, 2009 in Hockey, Trades | 2 comments

…and so it begins.

Today the Thrashers moved 35-year old UFA veteran D-man Niclas Havelid and prospect Myles Stoesz to New Jersey. In return, the Devils sent back 24-year old Anssi Salmela, a puck-moving defensive prospect. According to Ben Wright, Salmela is recoving from a minor injury and will start in Chicago. The plan is to bring him up to the big club for next week’s road trip starting in Colorado.

Perhaps the most interesting facet of this trade is that Waddell turned down 2nd round draft picks for Havelid. It would seem that he has full confidence in Salmela earning a spot full-time on the Thrashers. And why shouldn’t he? Anssi worked his way up to the Devils this year, playing 17 games with them. If he can crack the talented Devils roster, why shouldn’t he make our own?

Let’s be clear here: Havelid was not part of this team’s future. Even if he did resign with us in the offseason, Havelid’s only got enough gas in the tank for a few more good years. Salmela fits in much better with the overall age of our defensive corps. Let’s take a look at what we have on the table now:

  • Ron Hainsey, 27 years old, signed through 2013
  • Garnet Exelby, 27 years old, signed through 2010
  • Nathan Oystrick, 26 years old, RFA
  • Anssi Salmela, 24 years old, RFA
  • Tobias Enstrom, 24 years old, signed through 2013
  • Boris Valabik, 23 years old, RFA
  • Zach Bogosian, 18 years old, RFA in 2012

In addition, both Grant Lewis and Artus Kulda show NHL-level talent. (Grant Lewis will join the Thrashers for the time being.)

This leaves the Thrashers with the ability to move another defenseman before the deadline, perhaps packaged with another player to bring back top-6 talent. It’s no secret that the Thrashers are hurting at RW: both top-6 RWs are natural centers. Bringing back a 2-way RW – and this is where we really miss Hossa – should be a priority. In return we can send a defenseman and a prospect at forward, I would suggest a center.

And before you call me crazy for wanting to ship out a center, remember that we still have some talented centers on their way up. Both Esposito and Machacek will likely earn an NHL roster spot in the next few years. Rich Peverley is strongest at center (and pretty good in the faceoff circle – 50.4% this year) and could make the move.

My guess is that Don Waddell hasn’t yet closed the roster for the season.

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